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Median 15-minute move, across 16 years.
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News Impact Explorer
See how markets historically react to 60 economic events. Aggregated across 16 years and 41 instruments. Surprise-conditional analysis included.
Calm Zones
6,720 half-hours. Which ones have no news scheduled. For 28 FX pairs across 16 years of history, the fraction of each half-hour slot free of high or medium macro events.
Prop Firm Simulator
Know your pass probability before you pay a challenge fee. Real trade upload, real math, real answers. FTMO, FundedNext, The5ers.
Reversal Projection
When a new high or low forms, RPD scans history for similar formations and projects likely reversal zones for that move.
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| Bucket | n | Median move | Up bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| Big miss | 10 | +11.6 pips | 70% |
| Small miss | 37 | +12.1 pips | 84% |
| In line | 87 | -2.7 pips | 45% |
| Small beat | 47 | -28.5 pips | 28% |
| Big beat | 14 | -34.5 pips | 7% |
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Evidence-led write-ups from the tools we build. No hot takes. No signals.
NZ Employment Change q/q on NZDCAD: small_miss n=11 shows 2 of 11 UP at EVERY window from 5 minutes through 4 hours — the SAME 9-of-11 DOWN count holds at 5m, 15m, 30m, 1h, and 4h. Third leg of the NZ Employment cross-family after AUDNZD antipodal (2026-09-08) and NZDJPY domestic (2026-09-10), and the FIRST leg whose small_miss unanimity persists unbroken all the way to 4h — NZDJPY started deeper at 5m 0/11 up but decayed to 5/11 up (45.5%) by 4h.
63 non-contaminated NZ Employment Change q/q releases on NZDCAD (15m sample). Small_miss n=11 shows 2 of 11 UP (18.2%) at every window from 5 minutes through 4 hours — the same count of 9 DOWN and 2 UP holds at 5m, 15m, 30m, 1h, and 4h. Median walk -9.90 / -14.60 / -9.50 / -12.10 / -10.90 pips through the same five windows. Applied to today's Stats #42 Wilson score interval, the 95% two-sided CI on the true up-rate is [5.1%, 47.7%] — coin-flip cleanly OUTSIDE the upper bound. Yesterday's Clopper-Pearson (Stats #41) on the same 2/11 sample gives [2.3%, 51.8%] — fails to reject fair-coin. Wilson tightens the CP upper bound by 4.1pp, exactly enough to flip the decision. Third leg of the NZ Employment cross-family, and the FIRST persistent-through-4h reading — NZDJPY yesterday was tighter at 5m (0/11 up) but decayed to 45.5% up by 4h.
Tuesday 07:00 UTC is the LOUDEST 07:00 UTC cell of the week across all 28 liquid FX pairs — median rank 25/237, top-50 for 26 of 28 pairs, top-100 for all 28. Beats Wed 07:00 UTC by 13 rank positions on median and every central-bank decision cell except BoC. Isolates the 'European-morning pre-London ramp baseline' the 2026-09-09 SNB post identified qualitatively.
28 fresh /api/v1/calm-zones/scan pulls on 2026-09-11. Tuesday 07:00 UTC ranks in the top-50 loudest half-hours for 26 of 28 liquid FX pairs, top-30 for 20 of 28, and top-100 for all 28. Median rank across 28 pairs is 25 — 13 rank positions louder than Wed 07:00 UTC (median 38), 26 louder than Mon 07:00 UTC (51), and louder than every central-bank rate-decision cell except BoC Wed 14:00. EURJPY leads the pair-family pattern at rank 8 (only top-10 cell); JPY-crosses cluster inside top-20 (EURJPY 8, AUDJPY 13, GBPJPY 13, CHFJPY 16, NZDJPY 20). CAD-crosses trail (GBPCAD 57 quietest, USDCAD 51, CADCHF 50). Mechanism: Tokyo late-session carry-unwind meets London fixing pre-open bid — a European-morning JPY-cross lift that quantifies what the SNB Thu 07:30 UTC post (2026-09-09) attributed to 'pre-London ramp baseline'.
Statistics for Traders #42: The Wilson score confidence interval — invert the score test rather than the Wald test, and the resulting closed form (Wilson 1927 Section 2) is TIGHTER than yesterday's Clopper-Pearson exact interval on every unanimity sample the last three days have generated. Applied to today's slot 1 NZDCAD small_miss 2 of 11 UP: Wilson 95% CI on up-rate = [5.1%, 47.7%] cleanly rejects fair-coin where Clopper-Pearson's [2.4%, 51.8%] does not.
For n Bernoulli trials with k successes, the Wilson score interval is (p̂ + z²/(2n) ± z · sqrt(p̂q̂/n + z²/(4n²))) / (1 + z²/n). Derived by inverting the score test (Wilson 1927 Section 2, primary source verified in yesterday's PT #41). Cross-comparison of four methods on today's slot 1 NZDCAD 2-of-11 UP sample: Rule of Three (n/a, k≠0), Clopper-Pearson [2.4%, 51.8%], Agresti-Coull [4.0%, 48.8%], Wilson [5.1%, 47.7%]. Wilson is TIGHTEST and the ONLY method whose upper bound clears 50%, exactly flipping the fair-coin decision from 'inside' (CP) to 'outside' (Wilson). Same pattern on the CHFJPY 4/4 unanimity sample from 2026-09-10 slot 1: Wilson [51.0%, 100%] rejects 50%, CP [39.8%, 100%] does not. Wilson's advantage comes at a coverage-spike cost near p=0 and p=1; today's PT #42 (Agresti & Coull 1998) documents this trade-off and recommends Wilson anyway.
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