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Most retail traders find out how markets react to news the hard way — after the trade. Vantage runs the numbers first: years of price data against every major economic release, so you know the odds before Friday’s NFP, not after.
Median 15-minute move, across 16 years.
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News Impact Explorer
See how markets historically react to 60 economic events. Aggregated across 16 years and 41 instruments. Surprise-conditional analysis included.
Calm Zones
6,720 half-hours. Which ones have no news scheduled. For 28 FX pairs across 16 years of history, the fraction of each half-hour slot free of high or medium macro events.
Prop Firm Simulator
Know your pass probability before you pay a challenge fee. Real trade upload, real math, real answers. FTMO, FundedNext, The5ers.
Reversal Projection
When a new high or low forms, RPD scans history for similar formations and projects likely reversal zones for that move.
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Every retail trader has seen NFP whipsaw them. Nobody quantifies it. Financial Source charges $299 a month for this data. Bloomberg terminals are $2,000. We give it away.
| Bucket | n | Median move | Up bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| Big miss | 10 | +11.6 pips | 70% |
| Small miss | 37 | +12.1 pips | 84% |
| In line | 87 | -2.7 pips | 45% |
| Small beat | 47 | -28.5 pips | 28% |
| Big beat | 14 | -34.5 pips | 7% |
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Evidence-led write-ups from the tools we build. No hot takes. No signals.
UK Flash Services PMI on GBPUSD: at 5 minutes, all 4 big_miss prints sent GBPUSD DOWN AND all 3 big_beat prints sent it UP — DOUBLE tail unanimity that reproduces the big_miss 0-of-4 UP reading at 1 minute AND at 4 hours (triple-window big_miss unanimity, 4h median -23.30p the deepest of the six). First-ever GBP Flash Services PMI × any-pair anchor, opening the cross-family arc queued since 2026-08-15. Fisher's exact test on the 5m 2x2 (today's Stats #45): one-sided p = 1/35 = 0.0286.
75 non-contaminated UK Flash Services PMI releases on GBPUSD. At 5 minutes, all 4 big_miss prints sent GBPUSD DOWN and all 3 big_beat prints sent it UP — DOUBLE tail unanimity, and the big_miss 0-of-4 UP reading reproduces at 1 minute AND at 4 hours (triple-window unanimity; 4h median -23.30p is the deepest of the six windows). First-ever GBP Flash Services PMI × any-pair anchor, opens the cross-family arc queued since ~2026-08-15. Fisher's exact test (today's Stats #45) on the 5m 2x2 gives one-sided p = 1/35 = 0.0286.
Monday 07:00 UTC is the QUIETEST 07:00 UTC of the week across the 28 liquid FX pairs — median rank 51 across 240 weekday half-hours (verified 2026-09-14). Only 12 of 28 pairs crack top-50, none crack top-20 except EURJPY (rank 20). Full 5-weekday 07:00 UTC ordering: Tue 25 < Thu 29.5 < Wed 38 < Fri 44 < Mon 51 — Mon lags Tue by 26 rank positions on median. Closes the 5-weekday 07:00 UTC sub-arc opened by the 2026-09-11 Tue post and continued by the 2026-09-13 Thu post.
Monday 07:00 UTC ranks 12 of 28 pairs inside top-50 and 27 of 28 outside top-20 (only EURJPY at rank 20 cracks it). Median rank across 28 pairs is 51/240 — the QUIETEST 07:00 UTC of the week. Full weekday 07:00 UTC ordering: Tue 25 < Thu 29.5 < Wed 38 < Fri 44 < Mon 51, verified 2026-09-14 against the same 28 fresh calm-zones pulls used for the 2026-09-11 Tue post and the 2026-09-13 Thu post. Sunday's Asia handoff sits about 12 hours behind Monday's London pre-open and no intervening data-heavy Tokyo session has run to prime positioning — the 'second Monday' component of the London morning is missing.
Statistics for Traders #45: Fisher's exact test 2x2 — the small-sample joint-tail generalization of Stats #40-#44. Applied to today's slot 1 GBPUSD 5m double-tail unanimity (big_miss 4-of-4 DOWN + big_beat 3-of-3 UP): hold both row totals (4, 3) and column totals (4, 3) fixed, enumerate the 4 possible 2x2 tables, and read the observed table's hypergeometric probability directly. Result: p = C(4,4)·C(3,0) / C(7,4) = 1/35 = 0.0286 (one-sided) = 1/35 = 0.0286 (two-sided). Rejects a fair-tail null at 5% where 2 of 4 single-tail intervals fail. Same 1/35 on today's slot 5 EURGBP mirror 2x2.
The Fisher's exact test 2x2 — under the null 'row (miss/beat tail) is independent of column (down/up direction)', hold both row totals and column totals fixed and enumerate all 2x2 tables with those marginals. On today's slot 1 GBPUSD 5m table [[4,0],[0,3]]: only 4 tables exist, the observed has p = C(4,4)·C(3,0) / C(7,4) = 1/35 = 0.0286. Both one-sided and two-sided p equal 1/35 because the reverse extreme is infeasible under the observed marginals. Rejects fair-tail null where Rule of Three, Clopper-Pearson, and Agresti-Coull all fail (upper bound at n=4 straddles 50%); joins Wilson and Jeffreys in rejecting. Same 1/35 on the slot 5 EURGBP mirror 2x2.
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